Date of Award

3-23-2018

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Richard F. Deckro, PhD

Abstract

Iran is facing a daunting reality regarding the future of their water resources which may result in conflict and migration within the country with the potential to affect the Middle East and North African region and beyond. The country has failed to address critical preservation, risk mitigation, infrastructural, and political efforts to accommodate their rising population due to economic expansion. Water resources are dependent on social, political, economic, and environmental variables related to conflict and migration. Given the recent examples of water security issues in Syria resulting in migration and conflict, this thesis investigates the total available water per capita as a driver for the potential collapse of Iran’s water resources. Portions of two key world system dynamics models were combined to identify interrelated variables leading to migration and conflict. It was found through multiple simulations that decreasing water per capita levels leads to increases in aggregated migration and death rates for this particular investigation. Further experimentation with other interrelated variables such as civil liberties, level of government, and GDP per capita may highlight other drivers and allow extension of this model to other countries of interest.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-MS-18-M-140

DTIC Accession Number

AD1071841

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