Hypergame Analysis of Cyber Systems
Abstract
As technology is increasingly integrated into modern day systems, cyber defense becomes more important. Hypergame theory is a method that models these cyber attacks where players in the game can have different perceptions about the game being played. Capturing perceptions improves the accuracy of the model. Using this additional information a network administrator can formulate improved plans to better protect a cyber physical system (CPS). AFITs Hypergame Analysis Tool (HAT) software models these scenarios in a normal form hypergame, capturing multiple perceptions of a player. This investigation analyzes how HAT can be used to find more information for a network administrator defending a CPS. This scenario is modeled using a new cyber defense modeling framework (CDMF). HAT is upgraded with a mixed integer programming method (MIP) to find Nash equilibriums (NE). MIP in HAT is used run cyber models while changing NEs and row players. The results show new ways to analyze a hypergame and its results in order to support the network administrator in making better defense plans against an unpredictable attacker.