Date of Award

9-15-2011

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Dirk P. Yamamoto, PhD.

Abstract

Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) involving USAF military personnel when off duty/off base are a critical concern for the Department of Defense (DoD), due to potential impact on mission readiness. In addition, the cost of MVCs places excessive financial burden on the USAF budget, apart from productivity loss and negative emotional consequences on the victims. In particular, total injury cost was $ 356M, based on 2010 CY dollars. Determining the underlying factors leading to MVCs is crucial to establishing effective preventive measures to mitigate the negative consequences of MVCs.
This thesis applied categorical data and multiple regression analyses on (AFSC) historical data collected over 22 years. Specifically, analysis focused on MVCs in which (USAF) military personnel were involved when operating PMVs off duty/off base. Categorical data analysis revealed that USAF males with Company grade officers and those aged 17-20 years were more vulnerable to fatal MVCs, while Airman group, males 20-25 years old, were associated with the majority of MVCs. Moreover, MVCs most often occur between 0900-1400 & 1900-2400 hours during travel to or from work, while the most risky and hazardous time is 0500-0800 & 0100-0400. Impaired driving was not investigated by blood alcohol test in the greater part of MVCs, however, there was strong evidence that alcohol involvement correlated with the crash severity causing death and disability among service members. Additionally, alcohol was significantly associated with the Airman and Senior NCO rank groups while impaired driving increased during the invasions of v Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Gulf War (FY 2001-2007 and FY 1990-1991) accordingly. Environmental conditions, characterized by periods with high workload and operational tempo, resulted in greater volume and severity of MVCs. Alcohol involvement in MVCs was peaked during those periods, with Field Grade Officers affected significantly by those environmental conditions. Worth noting is that the Airman group was the least impacted by the pace of operations with respect to their involvement in MVCs. Ultimately, human and environmental factors, such as demographics and political-societal conditions resulted in a regression model for the volume of MVCs, exhibiting an R2 Adjusted in excess of 0.99. The variables are numerical and were from the most predictive, while the model passed all the necessary tests for model accuracy.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GCA-ENV-11-S01

DTIC Accession Number

ADA549419

Comments

Alternate title: Major Cost Drivers of MVCs Cost Involving Air Force Personnel and the Influence of the Military Environment.

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