Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD.


Historically, cost growth regression models analyze aggregate, program-level information. Initiatives by the Office of Secretary of Defense, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (OSD CAPE) require direct, centralized reporting of the complete Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Earned Value (EV) data. Centralized reporting allows access to unfiltered, unaltered, EV data for multiple programs. Using regression, we evaluate if WBS element Development Test and Evaluation (DT&E) EV data is related to program estimate at completion (EAC). Identifying a relationship provides evidence validating pertinence and reliability of low level EV data. Additionally, a relationship between a specific WBS element and program EAC establishes a basis for improved estimate development, and prediction capability. Our results show a strong relationship between DT&E and program EAC. Although limited by sample size and assumptions regarding DT&E commonality, our findings lead us to believe that there is potential for improved prediction models using low level WBS EV data.

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DTIC Accession Number