Date of Award

3-11-2011

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD.

Abstract

Historically, cost growth regression models analyze aggregate, program-level information. Initiatives by the Office of Secretary of Defense, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (OSD CAPE) require direct, centralized reporting of the complete Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Earned Value (EV) data. Centralized reporting allows access to unfiltered, unaltered, EV data for multiple programs. Using regression, we evaluate if WBS element Development Test and Evaluation (DT&E) EV data is related to program estimate at completion (EAC). Identifying a relationship provides evidence validating pertinence and reliability of low level EV data. Additionally, a relationship between a specific WBS element and program EAC establishes a basis for improved estimate development, and prediction capability. Our results show a strong relationship between DT&E and program EAC. Although limited by sample size and assumptions regarding DT&E commonality, our findings lead us to believe that there is potential for improved prediction models using low level WBS EV data.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GCA-ENC-11-02

DTIC Accession Number

ADA549645

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