Date of Award

3-26-2015

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Richard F. Deckro, PhD.

Abstract

This thesis develops the Fuel Interdiction and Resulting Cascading Effects (FI&RCE) model. The study details the development and experimental testing of a framework for assessing the interdiction of a refined petroleum production and distribution network. FI&RCE uses a maximum flow mathematical programming formulation that models the transit of fuels from points of importation and refinement through a polyduct distribution network for delivery across a range of end user locations. The automated model accommodates networks of varying size and complexity. FI&RCE allows for parameters and factor settings that enable robust experimentation through implementation in MATLAB 2014 and the commercial solver CPLEX (Version 12.5). Experimental design allows the investigation of interdiction or disruption on supply and network infrastructure locations in order to support the strategic analytical needs of the user. Given a target set, FI&RCE provides measured responses for the resulting fuel availability and a valuation of economic loss. The value of economic loss feeds a Leontief based input-output model that assesses the cascading effects in the studied economy by implementing a mathematical program that optimizes the remaining industrial outputs. FI&RCE demonstrates a framework to investigate the military and cascading effects of a fuel interdiction campaign plan using a realistic case study.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-MS-15-M-145

DTIC Accession Number

ADA615824

Download

Share

COinS