Date of Award

3-22-2012

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

John O. Miller, PhD.

Abstract

Simulation enables analysis of social systems that would be difficult or unethical to experiment upon directly. Agent-based models have been used successfully in the field of generative social science to discover parsimonious sets of factors that generate social behavior. This methodology provides an avenue to explore the spread of anti-government sentiment in populations and to compare the effects of potential Military Information Support Operations (MISO) actions. This research develops an agent-based model to investigate factors that affect the growth of rebel uprisings in a notional population. It adds to the civil violence model developed by Epstein (2006) by enabling communication between agents in the manner of a genetic algorithm and friendships based on shared beliefs. A designed experiment is performed. Additionally, two counter-propaganda strategies are compared and explored. Analysis identifies factors that have effects that can explain some real-world observations, and provides a methodology for MISO operators to compare the effectiveness of potential actions.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-OR-MS-ENS-12-26

DTIC Accession Number

ADA558577

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