Date of Award

3-22-2012

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Matthew J. Robbins, PhD.

Abstract

The Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps (AFROTC) faces a declining budget and increased enrollment, creating the necessity for improving officer candidate selection through the various stages of its commissioning program. Three critical stages have a major impact on the type of officer AFROTC commissions: (1) the high school scholarship allocation process, (2) the in-college scholarship allocation process, and (3) commissioning. This research proposes a multi-stage model to evaluate these stages. Each stage is examined individually so that collectively AFROTC decision makers are able to meet commissioning goals. Stage one involves allocating scholarships to high school candidates using the index policy heuristic. Stage two involves examining which candidates should be awarded an enrollment allocation while taking into account the probabilities of the candidate completing field training (FT) and going on to commission. A logistic regression is used to estimate the probabilities of FT completion and commissioning given a candidate's demographic information and college performance. Stage two is examined using dynamic programming with a knapsack formulation. Stage three involves selecting the most qualified cadets to commission into the USAF and is examined using a knapsack approach.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-OR-MS-ENS-12-16

DTIC Accession Number

ADA558189

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