The Evolution of Reliability Methods for Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE): From Probability of Detection (POD) Conception to Contemporary Practices

Authors

• Christine E. Knott, Air Force Research Laboratory
• Jennifer Brown, Brown Engineering Statistics Technologies
• John Aldrin, Computational Tools LLC
• Christine M. Schubert Kabban, Air Force Institute of TechnologyFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

9-7-2026

Abstract

Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods are powerful tools for detecting and characterizing flaws in structural components, but their reliability must be evaluated before they can be used in critical applications. For more than 50 years, probabilistic and statistical methods have been used effectively to estimate reliability by describing an NDE system’s Probability of Detection (POD) for flaws of realistic sizes. The POD methods used by the USAF and NASA, like Hit/Miss, Signal-Response (â vs. a), and Point Estimate method (PEM, a.k.a. 29/29) have evolved, alongside newer approaches like Limited Sample POD (LS-POD) method, and Model Assisted Probability of Detection (MAPOD). This paper reviews the history of each POD method, describes the statistical methods currently used by the USAF and NASA, and describes when it is appropriate to use each method. Although this paper focuses on the accepted methods, it also addresses the challenges and limitations of the methods, in hopes of inspiring new avenues of research for assessing the reliability of nondestructive evaluation systems.

Comments

© 2026 The Authors.

This article is published by IEEE, licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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DOI

10.1109/OJIM.2026.3731334

Source Publication

IEEE Open Journal of Instrumentation and Measurement (eISSN 2768-7236)

Recommended Citation

C. Knott, J. Brown, J. C. Aldrin and C. S. Kabban, "The Evolution of Reliability Methods for Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE): From Probability of Detection (POD) Conception to Contemporary Practices," in IEEE Open Journal of Instrumentation and Measurement, vol. 5, pp. 6000417-6000417, 2026, Art no. 6000417, doi: 10.1109/OJIM.2026.3731334.