Date of Award

9-1993

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Abstract

This study is an exploratory investigation into the development of metamodels of a particular Theater Simulation of Airbase Resources (TSAR) simulation model. Techniques applicable to the development of metamodels from a simulation using an orthogonal two-level fractional factorial experimental design are discussed. The experimental design is found to limit the metamodel form to polynomial linear least squares regression models, and also to greatly simplify the process of building regression models. Using the simulation results from previous research, alternate metamodels are proposed for both the prediction of sorties generated by the airbase system, as modeled by the simulation; and to assist in understanding and explaining the relationships between airbase resource levels, their interactions, and sorties generated. The metamodels developed for prediction are found to be substantially different from the metamodels for explanation. While unable to develop metamodels for explanation significantly different from the metamodels from the previous research, this research confirms that the existing metamodels are the best possible models that meet the chosen selection criteria. Several lessons pertaining to the metamodeling process for large scale simulations using similar experimental designs are proposed. A flexible manual alternative to computerized model reduction techniques is also proposed.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GLM-LAL-93S-13

DTIC Accession Number

ADA276271

Comments

Presented to the Faculty of the School of Logistics and Acquisitions Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology

The author's Vita page is omitted.

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