Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Christopher M. Chini, PhD


Stormwater systems across the United States (US) are aging with the American Society of Civil Engineers awarding a grade of D for the state of the infrastructure. Additionally, these aging systems are under-designed for climate-induced non-stationarity of rainfall. Several studies indicate a global increase of extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change, driving the need for future stormwater management designs that account for a changing climate. Specifically, this research generates climate-change informed intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve change factors through downscaled climate scenario change factors. While previous work has identified processes for predicting future IDF curves, this study generated curves, discusses the results within the context of current design policy used by the Department of Defense (DoD), and captures how results may influence risk-based decision making for DoD assets. Resultant change factors vary across six (6) installations spanning the eastern US, two different climate scenarios, and two future time periods. The greatest projected change is 55% increase near Little Rock Air Force Base (AFB), Arkansas, while the least is an 11% decrease near Tyndall AFB, Florida. Median change factors increase design storm depths from 3-35% depending on location and return period, indicating the need for design policy modifications by installation. The results of the research indicate the feasibility of using change factors as a climate change adaptation strategy

AFIT Designator



A 12-month embargo was observed.

Approved for public release: 88ABW-2023-0394