Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis

First Advisor

Wendell P. Simpson III, PhD

Second Advisor

Carl R. Templin, PhD


The purpose of this research was to develop a menu driven, computer program that implemented methodologies for cost uncertainty analysis. Cost uncertainties have been quantified using either simulation techniques or through heuristic means. Simulation techniques require time to run the required number of iterations. Current computer based heuristic methods do not check correlation matrices for consistency nor do they enable the analyst to perform queries. This research resulted in the development of an automated heuristic cost uncertainty program which alleviates the limitations of current computer programs. The program contains a file editor for creating and modifying data files, a cost uncertainty module for computing decile level total system cost probabilities and a query function. The FORTRAN computer program is completely menu driven for ease of use.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number



The author's Vita page is omitted.

Presented to the Faculty of the School of Logistics and Acquisition Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology.