Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Operations Research


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Paul F. Auclair, PhD


To effectively compare different sets of available aircraft, it is necessary to find the apportionment that maximizes the effectiveness of each set of aircraft. This research effort uses an unclassified TAC THUNDER scenario to show how an analyst can use response surface methodology RSM techniques to estimate the relationship between aircraft apportionment and campaign outcomes. The optimal apportionments for one phase of a hypothetical conflict was found by using a steepest-gradient search of the constrained response surfaces. The results are illustrated by illuminating charts showing the various relationships between the number of aircraft in the theater and measures of effectiveness such as FLOT movement and attrition. The results show close air support and interdiction missions to be highly effective in this phase of the scenario. The effect of the enemy’s air-to-air probability of kill AAP and surface-to-air probability of kill SAP on the MOEs provides insight into the sensitivity of the solution in terms of these operational uncertainty parameters. This type of sensitivity analysis also provides useful information on how the TAC THUNDER algorithms interact to simulate the combat environment.

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DTIC Accession Number



The author's Vita page is omitted.