Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Daniel Caldwell, PhD


Monte Carlo simulation and source-receptor modeling are used to estimate the TCE exposures encountered by select workers at aircraft maintenance facilities at Hill Air Force Base between 1955 and 1979. An epidemiological study of this group, a retrospective cohort study of 14,457 workers who were employed at the base for a minimum of one year between 1952 and 1956, was headed by Dr. R. Spirtas of the National Cancer Institute to evaluate mortality associated with occupational exposure. One of the major conclusions of the study was that TCE 'probably does not pose a strong carcinogenic risk for man.' In the Spirtas study, historic exposure levels were not quantitatively estimated. Instead, indices of exposure to TCE were assigned to reflect relative differences in exposure levels. It is the objective of this research effort to quantitatively estimate specific worker exposures, thus adding to the weight of evidence necessary to classify TCE as a human carcinogen or otherwise.

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DTIC Accession Number



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