Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


This research was conducted to determine the accuracy of statistical forecasting techniques forecasting the inventory of pharmaceutical items. Because pharmaceutical items are subject to a degree of seasonality of demand, the Director of Medical Logistics at the Wright-Patterson Medical Center believed that the use of such techniques may provide a more accurate forecast for the items stocked by the Outpatient Pharmacy. In addition to the technique used by the Outpatient Pharmacy (the 12 month simple moving average) three statistical forecasting methods were employed: the 6 month simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and the Winter's exponential smoothing. These techniques were used to obtain forecasts, and the results were analyzed for measurement error. The Winter's exponential smoothing method prove superior in nearly all cases, and offers the best potential for use.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number



The author's Vita page is omitted.

Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Logistics and Acquisition Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology.