Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science

First Advisor

William A. Cunningham III, PhD


This research represents an attempt to develop a quantitative tool that could be used to forecast Traffic Management Office (IMO) budget requirements for freight movements at base level within Air Combat Command. Regression analysis, using aircraft flying hours, aircraft sorties, and wing manpower levels as independent variables to predict shipping costs, was used in this research project. Each of the independent variables was aggregated and disaggregated at various levels in an attempt to develop a simple but accurate model. The results seem to suggest that aircraft flying hours, aircraft sorties, and wing manpower levels are not accurate predictors of TMO freight shipping requirements. Of the three independent variables, the most useful was for forecasting IMU freight shipping requirements was the manpower variable, not aircraft flying hours or aircraft sorties as expected. because of these results, the author recommends the continued use of the current naive forecasting method until a better model is developed.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number



The author's Vita page is omitted.

Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Logistics and Acquisition Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology.