Bruce Rayno

Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Gregory S. Parnell, PhD


This research identifies the assumptions and simplifications in the SPACECAST 2020 value model and assesses modifications. The model determines and prioritizes future space systems' utility toward controlling and exploiting space. This study shows that the assumption of using an additive utility function is valid. This research shows that the mission areas are mutually utility independent allowing the use of the multiplicative utility function. This research also uses the multilinear function, which requires utility independence implied in mutual utility independence. This study makes modifications to the 98 SPACECAST 2020 measure of merit scoring functions. These scoring functions all used the same scoring scale and they do not allow for the determination of the overall current capability toward controlling and exploiting space. Most of these functions are replaced with either a concave, convex, linear, or "S" scoring function, which has an expanded capability range to include current and future capabilities. The modified scoring functions and alternate utility functions do not alter the SPACECAST 2020 results but do improve upon the model. This study also presents a flexible but formalized method of space system concept identification, which explicitly considers space operational requirements.

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