Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


It is clear that the Department of Defense and the USAF, in an effort to cut costs, will continue to reduce infrastructure through base closures. This has particular implications to the civilian employee who will likely lose his or her job. The purpose of this study was to review the most recent literature relating to safety and industrial facility closures and develop a theoretical model for predicting accident or mishap rates. From the literature reviewed, a theoretical model is proposed containing five candidate variables intended to measure; perceived adequacy of employee safety training, perceived safety culture, perceived safety climate, self-reported employee morale, Safety Locus of Control; as well as five candidate indicator variables intended to measure; equipment maintenance levels, company resources allocated for safety, levels of overtime performed, quality or re-works, occurrence of personal site visits by Distinguished Visitors. Potential survey instrument items are provided along with a proposed implementation plan for the five Air Logistic Centers. Prevention of accidents through proactive policies may lead to additional savings through claims cost avoidance. Model validation and item analysis are left as a follow-on effort to this research.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number



Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Logistics and Acquisition Management of the Air Force Institute of Technology

Included in

Risk Analysis Commons