Date of Award

3-1998

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

First Advisor

Stuart C. Kramer, PhD

Abstract

This thesis is an application of decision analysis techniques to the problem of evaluating competing research and development investments and selecting the best portfolio from among the alternatives. In contrast to the current ad hoc approach, decision analysis provides an explicit and easily explained rationale for investment choices, complete and consistent incorporation of multiple objectives, and direct insight into the effects of uncertain investment returns. A hierarchical objective decomposition was used to capture the user's preference structure. The hierarchy was then used to develop a computer-based decision aid to allow the users to quickly and consistently evaluate technology investment options. The decision aid includes the ability to automatically perform several deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GOR-ENY-98M-01

DTIC Accession Number

ADA341799

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