Date of Award

3-2022

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Clay M. Koschnick, PhD

Abstract

Financial ratio analysis has long been used to determine the financial health of firms and project business performance. Despite the usefulness of financial ratio analysis, risk analysis in defense acquisitions largely ignores these indicators of company financial well-being. This research performs contingency table statistical analysis to determine if a relationship exists between company financial ratios and their future cost performance on Air Force contracts. The general findings are that poor financial ratios at the time of contract start are related to increased likelihood of cost overruns on that contract. Specifically, recent trends of a company’s current ratio in comparison to the long-term average current ratio of that company are especially linked with the Cost Performance Index (CPI). The results of this research justify further exploration into financial ratio analysis of offering companies as a means to better assess the cost overrun risk of DoD programs.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-22-M-272

DTIC Accession Number

AD1174736

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