Date of Award

3-2022

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Justin D. Delorit, PhD

Abstract

Hurricane frequency and magnitude intensification are expected over the remainder of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty in future projections requires that coastal communities approach adaptation decisions with caution. Traditional approaches are costly and inflexible. Soft policy adaptations are largely unenforceable. Hard, natural adaptations have emerged as an opportunity to partially mitigate the growing risk of extreme flooding, without the large investments required for traditional approaches, where natural infrastructure already exists. Existing literature for natural adaptations has not leveraged intensification expectations for hurricane events. This research uses multihazard damage evaluation software and spatial analysis to investigate placement of dredged sediment as a barrier island maintenance technique to determine economic viability, as compared to no-action alternatives. The efficacy of this strategy is tested against 18 threat and time calibrated scenarios, applied to existing barrier islands at Tyndall AFB. The results illustrate that protection of 7 square miles of existing barrier islands could help avert facility and infrastructure damage from high-intensity hurricane surge events predicted at 2100 by up to 3 orders of magnitude compared to a status quo scenario. The broader implications suggest that planners should look to preserve natural infrastructure that provides surge protection based on the ability to mitigate damages from intensified climate factors.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENV-MS-22-M-268

DTIC Accession Number

AD1174731

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