Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science

First Advisor

Maj Alan Johnson


During the 1990's the Air Force experienced severe declines in serviceable inventory levels and a rise in their TNMCS rates. Air Force predictions of TNMCS hours during this time period did not account for the upward trend in TNMCS rates. The Air Force uses a regression equation, consisting of possessed hours, flying hours, and sorties, to predict TNMCS hours. This research, through simple linear regression, found a significant relationship between serviceable inventory levels and TNMCS rates for 8 of the 10 aircraft studied. Using this relationship, serviceable inventory levels were then added to the Air Force equations and new multiple regression equations were derived. Results indicate the addition of serviceable inventory as an explanatory variable renders a better Theil's U-statistic for each of the aircraft studied than the current predictions. The study recommends adding a logistics chain variable to TNMCS predictions and careful consideration of further reparable inventory reductions.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number



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