Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Steven J. Schuldt, PhD


Cost and schedule overrun plague over 50 of all construction projects, engendering diminished available funding that leads to deferred maintenance and impaired award ability for needed projects. Though existing research attempts to identify overruns sources, the results are inconclusive and frequently differ. Accordingly, this research reviews DoD construction contract data from the past ten years to identify the contract attributes of 79,894 projects that correlate with superior performance for use in future project execution. This research starts with creating a database that houses the largest single source of construction contract information. The research then evaluates the data to determine if differences in project performance exist when comparing contracting agents, funding agents, and award months. Next, the research utilizes stepwise logistic regression to determine the significant contract attributes and predict future projects overrun likelihoods. Model accuracy for predicting the likelihood of cost and schedule overrun is 65% and 75%, respectively. Finally, this research concludes by providing insights into efforts that could improve modeling accuracies, thereby informing better risk management practices. This research is expected to support public and private sector planners in their ongoing efforts to execute construction projects more cost-effectively and better utilize requested funds.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number



Co-authored thesis.