Date of Award
Master of Science
Department of Systems Engineering and Management
Robert D. Fass, PhD
Subject Matter Expert (SME) Elicitation is commonly used as a cost-estimation method when no historical data exists. The elicitation process assumes Subject Matter Experts are the resident experts in their individual fields of study. In addition, the process assumes SMEs provide reasonably trustworthy cost estimates that follow the tenets of probability theory. This last assumption is the subject of this study. A Navy sponsored e-learning course was created to help train SMEs in understanding probability distributions (O'Hagan, 2019). We conducted a study hypothesizing that taking the e-learning course would improve study participant accuracy in estimating confidence intervals for probability distributions.
DTIC Accession Number
Scott, Cameron R., "Training Subject Matter Experts to Make Better Estimates" (2021). Theses and Dissertations. 4961.