Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

James W. Chrissis, PhD


The Army is concerned with maintaining safe operations in tight of increasing operational demands. The Army Safety Center's goal, as approved by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisitions and Tech no logy, is to reduce accident severity by 50% in the next decade. The Safety Center chartered the Aviation Safety Investment Strategy Team to evaluate accidents to determine their hazards, or contributing conditions, and their controls, or reduction measures. This study specifically targets the force-modernized aircraft, AH-64 Apache, CH/MH-47 Chinook, OH-58D Kiowa Warrior, and UH-60 Black Hawk. This research takes a look at selecting the best portfolios of controls to minimize aviation accident severity. The accidents are simulated using Monte Carlo techniques. Value-Focused Thinking techniques evaluate the severity of accidents generated by the simulation. The optimization is approached using a knapsack heuristic. Insights into selecting the best sets of controls aid decision makers when determining the portfolios with the best Percent Severity Reduction given budget considerations.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number