Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

James T. Moore, PhD


The performance of the Nuclear Facility (NFAC) incident module in modeling a nuclear reactor accident is evaluated. Fallout predictions are compared with air concentration measurements of I-131 in Europe over a five-day period. Two categories of source term specifications are used: NFAC-generated source terms based on plant conditions and accident severity, and user-defined source terms based on specifying the release of I-131. The Atmospheric Transport Model Evaluation Study report source term provided the needed detailed release information. The Air Force Combat Climatology Center provided weather data covering Europe during the release's 11-day duration. For the NFAC-generated source terms as few as 20% and as many as 52% of the values are within the intended accuracy, depending on which source term specification was selected. For the user-defined source terms, values ranged 35% to 56% being within the intended accuracy, again depending on which source term specification was used. Performance improved in all cases for monitoring sites closest to Chernobyl, with up to 87% of the values falling within the intended accuracy. This indicates there may be a limit for selecting the spatial domain, making HPAC more useful as a tool for smaller spatial domains, rather than on a continental scale.

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DTIC Accession Number