Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Mark A. Ward, PhD


Recognizing that a strong commitment to advanced technical and management education (Van Scotter, 1993, p. 1) serves to maintain the capability and strength of the United States Air Force (USAF), the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) Graduate School of Engineering and Management (GSEM) offers a full-time, eighteen-month, Graduate Engineering and Environmental Management (GEEM) program to military officers and Department of Defense (DoD) civilian employees. The AFIT uses the applicant's undergraduate grade-point average (UGPA), Graduate Record Examination (GRE) General Test verbal and quantitative scores, and undergraduate mathematics course grade-point average (UMGPA) to select applicants for admission. This study analyzed how well these selection devices predicted success in the GEEM program for students admitted to the classes of 1995 through 2002. Controlling for age, gender, and the time (in years) between undergraduate and graduate education (TDELTA), the UGPA, GRE (verbal) score, GRE (quantitative) score, and UMGPA were sequentially entered into a hierarchical, multivariable, linear regression model. Using this technique, three separate regression model were built, one for each operationalization of graduate school performance: cumulative graduate grade-point average (GGPA), AFIT thesis grade, and first-year graduate grade-point average (FYGGPA). Every independent variable, either alone or in combination with other predictor variables, except for age, gender, and GRE (quantitative), demonstrated statistical significance as a predictor of both FYGGPA and GGPA. Only UMGPA, combined with all other predictor variables, significantly predicted thesis grade.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number