Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Michael A. Greiner, PhD


This research effort employs a System Dynamics methodology to model Air Force aircraft production break costs. The Air Force currently used the Anderlohr, Modified Anderlohr, and Retrograde methods for the estimation of aircraft production breaks. These methods offer little insight into the dynamic behavior of an aircraft production break. System Dynamics offers a unique way of capturing expert opinions in this area and dynamically presenting behaviors of an Air Force aircraft production line during a production break. Development of this model followed a four-step process of conceptualization, formulation, testing, and implementation. Five Air Force aircraft production break experts in were interviewed to formulate and validate the model. This research identified manpower turbulence and parts disruptions as the main cost drivers during the initial shutdown of an aircraft production line. During the break, there were minimal costs and no main costs drivers. During the restart of production, new requirements and the reconstitution of the workforce were found to be key cost drivers. Expert feedback indicates the System Dynamics model developed during this research will prove most valuable in policy formulation and in training of cost analysts.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number