An Analysis of a Hurricane Loss Model, Validation from Tyndall AFB, and Applications for the Air Force
Date of Award
Master of Science
Department of Systems Engineering and Management
Andrew J. Hoisington, PhD
Recent reconstruction of infrastructure and its associated cost due to hurricanes justify research into hurricane loss models that can provide a more robust cost estimate. Academic research indicates that hurricane disasters are becoming more frequent and are becoming costlier. This research intends to explore hurricane loss models used by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Risk Management Solution (RMS) and Florida State University (FSU). Within the literature review, key components of hurricane loss models were identified. These models and the key components were explored in order to help bring an understanding of loss estimation. The research found that the implementation of the HAZUS model may aid in calculating the replacement cost of buildings using the specific building loss functions. The building loss functions are dependent on terrain type and building characteristics, however. HAZUS user define facilities capability reports the probability of specific building damage, however not the replacement cost. The generic building stock results prove to be off by approximately 70 when comparing building averages. The building loss functions results prove to be off by approximately 195 and the user define facilities proved to be off by approximately 438 when comparing building to building results. The limitations included unavailable awarded contracts, the analysis was only applied to 41 buildings and that default generic building stock data within the software. Within the DoD, HAZUS conveys that rougher terrain and masonry buildings can be advantageous when building near the shore. Using the building loss functions method is a simpler, quicker and standardized approach to get replacement cost results. Overall, this research determined that HAZUS may give valuable insight when looking at hurricane strikes in a study region.
DTIC Accession Number
Hernandez, Nestor, "An Analysis of a Hurricane Loss Model, Validation from Tyndall AFB, and Applications for the Air Force" (2020). Theses and Dissertations. 4058.