Date of Award
Master of Science in Cost Analysis
Department of Systems Engineering and Management
Michael A. Greiner, PhD
This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Navy rotary aircraft. Three separate forecasting techniques were evaluated to better predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Navy. The process begins by empirically analyzing Operating & Support cost categories for each helicopter. Trends were examined in CPFH. For forecasting purposes, actual CPFH figures were compiled from 1997 to 2003 for the CH-46D, the CH-53D, the MH-53E, the SH-60F, the UH-1N, and the UH-3H helicopters. The forecasting techniques explored were the 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's linear method. These forecasting techniques were used to forecast for FY03 in evaluating the best methodology to forecast the CPFH for FY04. By comparing both the budgeted and forecasted figures for FY00 to FY02 to the actual CPFH figures in the same years, CPFH was more accurately forecasted. Actual, budgeted, and forecasted CPFH were compared for FY03. Holt's linear method was deemed the best forecasting method for 67 percent of the time series analyzed. The analysis was based on summary statistics and calculations. Finally, FY04 CPFH was forecasted for each helicopter using the chosen forecasting method.
DTIC Accession Number
Wilkes, Christopher J., "Analysis and Forecasting of U.S. Navy Operating and Support (O&S) Costs for Rotary Aircraft" (2004). Theses and Dissertations. 3974.