Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Michael A. Greiner, PhD


This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Army Helicopters. Specifically, three separate forecasting techniques were evaluated to better predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Army. For forecasting purposes, actual CPFH figures were compiled from 1995 to 2003 for all MACOMs flying the AH-64A, the CH-47D, and the UH-60A helicopters. The number of MACOMs was then reduced to the top three with regard to total CPFH expenditure. The use of a 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's linear method were explored for each helicopter's data. These forecasting techniques were used to forecast for FY03 in evaluating the best methodology to forecast the CPFH for FY04. By comparing both the budgeted and forecasted figures for FY00 to FY02 to the actual CPFH figures in the same years, an accurate CPFH forecast for all of the MACOMs was possible. When data became available, a comparison of the actual, budgeted, and forecasted CPFH for FY03 was performed. Holt's linear method was discovered to be the best forecasting method for 78 percent of the time series analyzed since they contained positive trends. Finally, the best forecast provided for FY04 was calculated with the chosen forecasting method.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number