Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Logistics and Supply Chain Management


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Adam Reiman, PhD


The Air Force is working hard to reduce the shortage of nearly 2,000 pilots that threatens the Air Force’s core mission. Officials have focused on increasing retention and training throughput. Despite this, the first Pilot Training Next class graduated in August of 2018 with 13 of the initial 20 students (65.5% graduation rate). The purpose of this research is to explore attrition reduction by understanding how class composition of individual abilities and personalities affects the class graduation rate. Using AFOQT scores, SDI+ scores, PCSM scores, flight hours, and college GPAs, correlations were studied and a simple linear regression was run with the variables to determine relationships. This study resulted in the creation of models to help decision makers plan classes to optimize success rates. Additionally, correlations between group scores and graduation rates were compared to correlations between individual scores and individual performance. Decision makers can employ these findings in the creation of future classes to increase performance and decrease attritions.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number