Date of Award

3-24-2016

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Darryl K. Ahner, PhD.

Abstract

This research proposes a methodology to develop models for the greater understanding of the application of the economic instrument of national power through a selection of factors that define the economic condition of a country. The major components of an economy are identified as GDP per capita, a treasury bond yield, and a major stock market index. The components have interconnected dynamics along with external influences from the United Stated Federal Funds Rate and foreign direct investment. These connections are considered through a metamodel in the form of a system of differential equations which is solved as an inverse problem. The validity of the model is verified and the model is then used in making short term forecasts. What-if analysis of various policies is explored resulting in insight to policy changes. Through an increased understanding and awareness of the dynamics of the economic environment, a foundation for analysis is built to begin addressing the impacts of pecuniary warfare tactics.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-MS-16-M-102

DTIC Accession Number

Pending

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