Date of Award
Master of Science
Department of Engineering Physics
Kevin S. Bartlett, PhD.
The Ensemble Prediction Suites (EPS) used at the 557th Weather Wing (557 WW) provide probability based forecasts for thousands of worldwide locations. Point Ensemble Probability (PEP) bulletins are tailored specifically to the United States military and its criteria for operationally significant weather. This study assesses the performance of PEPs from each EPS at 17 Continental United States (CONUS) locations. Results from April to October of 2015 show that each EPS is underforecasting ceilings and visibility for most forecast hours at several locations. The underforecasting of ceilings is most severe at Vandenberg AFB, an area prone to frequent marine layer fog and stratus. The MEPS 4 km also shows significantly better lightning forecast skill compared to the other EPS grid scales. However, each EPS is susceptible to overforecasting lighting at night. Finally, in areas with complex terrain, wind forecasts are degraded with decreasing model resolution.
DTIC Accession Number
Burns, Derek A., "The Reliability and Skill of Air Force Weather’s Ensemble Prediction Suites" (2016). Theses and Dissertations. 333.