Date of Award
Master of Science in Cost Analysis
Department of Systems Engineering and Management
Clay M. Koschnick, PhD
Subjective uncertainty exists within the realm of cost estimation. Typical methodology for subjective uncertainty involves elicitation from a subject matter expert to provide a high, low, and most likely value -- defining a triangular distribution -- to model said uncertainty. This manuscript explores ways to leverage research on elicitation geared towards defining a triangular distribution and provide a simple conversion to a beta distribution usable by cost analysts with various degrees of mathematical knowledge. Furthermore, this manuscript attempts to demonstrate the benefits of using a beta distribution through its application as a conjugate prior for Bayesian updating in cost models.
Stafford, Ryan D., "Analysis of Beta Distribution for Subjective Uncertainty Analysis in Cost Models" (2020). Theses and Dissertations. 3255.