Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Logistics and Supply Chain Management


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

John M. Dickens, PhD


Weapon System Sustainment (WSS) costs are growing at an increasing rate despite the vast efforts to reduce them. Researchers have attributed much of the cost increase to inaccurate demand forecasts for weapon system spare parts. In 2011, the forecast to sustain all United States Air Force (USAF) aircraft was 19% accurate and WSS costs per year have continuously increased. The purpose of this study is to explore a parsimonious change to aircraft component forecasting to reduce costly forecast error. This study substitutes flying hours with sorties for the purpose of demand forecasting. Many F-16 and B-52 spare parts are evaluated by employing demand and usage data from the D200 and LIMS-EV. The modified Poisson process modeled in this study indicates error can be decreased for many of the components the USAF invests in. This study resulted in roughly a 15% decrease in forecast error among the F-16 and B-52 platforms. Decision makers can employ the insight gained from the model developed in this study to reduce WSS costs and improve performance.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number