Date of Award

6-3-2008

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Shane J. Knighton, PhD

Abstract

This research uses decision analysis to develop a structured, repeatable and most importantly defensible decision model for the evaluation of proposed IED defeat solutions submitted to the Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO). Additive value models using Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are examined as possible methodologies. VFT is determined to be the "best fit" for JIEDDO's decision situation in which proposals are submitted continuously and must be scored independently of previous proposals. VFT is first used to determine desirable qualities in IED defeat options, and then to generate a hierarchal value model to evaluate these qualities in a selected group of alternatives. The most important criteria for IED defeat proposal evaluation are: Need for the Capability, Operational Effectiveness, and Usability. A group of 30 proposals, previously assessed by the current JIEDDO process, is evaluated suing the VFT decision model and the rank ordered results are compared with JIEDDO's previous selection decisions. The VFT decision model results support JIEDDO's past decisions to accept or reject IED defeat proposals, validating the model. Sensitivity analysis is then conducted to allow further insight to the robustness of the model. The resulting effort creates a decision model that, when consistently applied, provides a repeatable and defensible decision support model that reflects JIEDDO's priorities for proposal selection.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-GSE-ENV-08-J01

DTIC Accession Number

ADA484369

Comments

Co-authored thesis.

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