Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Engineering Management


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Alfred E. Thal, Jr., PhD


Energy consumption is a national concern, as evidenced by federal laws aimed toward facility energy conservation measures for federal organizations. Factors, primarily weather variables, that significantly impact energy consumption must be addressed and understood to align resources and programs to meet federal energy reduction goals. An energy model was created and tested to produce an appropriate forecasting tool for energy consumption. Energy demand at Air Force installations primarily depends on climatic conditions, with a small portion attributed to a base level of non-climatic conditions, such as interior lighting and appliance loads. By gathering all energy consumption and meteorological data covering 22 years for 74 Air Force installations throughout the world, an overarching predictive model was created. Specifically, heating degree-days, cooling degree-days, wind speed, and relative humidity data were collected and analyzed to determine the influence on energy consumption. The model showed a predictive value with adjusted R2 above 81%. Additionally, trend analysis conducted over the 22-year period provided insight into the significant use of heating load requirements during the winter months as compared to cooling load requirements in summer months. This information should encourage energy policy makers to allocate more resources into heating system requirements than into cooling requirements, taking advantage of major opportunities to reduce energy consumption.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number