Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD


This research explores how the United States Air Force Physical Fitness Test (AFPFT) events compare to sister-services' physical fitness test events with respect to their predictability of combat capability. Multiple regression tools, non-parametric analyses, and chi2 contingency table hypothesis testing were utilized to test hypotheses about performances and determine associations between involved variables. AFPFT scores had minimal predictability (adj R2 0.2045) [but improved when raw data replaced scoring sheets, pushups have no maximum, and abdominal circumference and age are removed (adj R2 0.7703)]. Higher Body Mass Index (BMI) predicts higher combat capability (p-value 0.0208). The best two-event model incorporated a 1/2-mile run and 30-lb. dumbbell lifts (adj R2 0.8514), and the best three-event model also incorporates pushups with no maximum (adj R2 0.8819). Completion of the fireman's carry has a dependency on both BMI >25 (p-value 0.00152) or a waist >32.5" (p-value 0.00521). Improvement in peer stratifications from the AFPFT to combat capability has a dependency on BMI >25 (p-value 3.19E-7), even with abdominal circumference excluded from the scoring (p-value 0.00586). Women were found to have lower combat capability than men (p-value 0.0003). Those who could not pass the fireman's carry were found to have lower combat capability (p-value 0.0002).

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number