Date of Award
Master of Science in Cost Analysis
Department of Systems Engineering and Management
Jonathan D. Ritschel, PhD
Accurately predicting Operating and Support (O&S) costs is vital in the current climate of budgetary constraints. However, there is an overall lack of research in the realm of O&S which hinders cost estimator’s abilities to provide accurate sustainment estimates. This research determines when Air Force Aircraft O&S costs stabilize and to what degree. Stability is examined in three areas: total O&S costs, the six O&S cost element structures, and aircraft type. Stability results vary by category but generally is found to occur 80% of the time at approximately five years from Initial Operating Capability (IOC). The second portion of this research employs a multiple regression model to predict median O&S costs per total active aircraft in the inventory (CPTAI). All O&S costs and variables for regression derived from the literature are collected using the Air Force Total Ownership Cost (AFTOC) database. The model explains 87.24% of the variance in the data set when predicting median O&S CPTAI. Results from this research provide insight to cost estimators on when to start using actual O&S costs as a baseline for estimates in lieu of analogous programs and provides a new parametric O&S estimating tool designed as a cross-check to current estimating methodologies.
DTIC Accession Number
Hewitson, Scott C., "An Analysis of Stability Properties in Operating and Support Costs" (2018). Theses and Dissertations. 1892.