Date of Award
Master of Science in Cost Analysis
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Edward D. White, PhD
When contractors provide timely and reliable information on the status of a contract, both contractors and government program offices can provide an accurate estimate of a contract’s completion costs. This research shows that the cumulative cost performance indices provided by contractors and program offices are high and less accurate than those of previous years and/or that a significant amount of ACWP is being documented in the final portion of a contract. The high performance indices resulted in EACs that were low-balled during the majority of a contract’s life which shows a need to improve the use of EVM metrics for effective project and program management. This research replicates Christensen’s findings in 1996 which proved that using the SCI was a more accurate indicator of EAC vice the CPI. Consistent with Christensen’s research, SCI is still a more accurate indicator of CAC according to this study but not by a significant amount. When SCI is used to predict the final cost on contracts from the 21st century, a 5% deviation from the final cost starts at the 70% complete point when using both CPI and SCI as the performance indicator.
DTIC Accession Number
Kim, Deborah B., "An Analysis of the Estimate at Complete for Department of Defense Contracts" (2018). Theses and Dissertations. 1738.