Organizational Strategic Basing Framework with Infusion of Multi-Dimensional Uncertainty
Abstract
Evidence suggests the United States Air Force executes capital investment decisions based on point estimates without sufficient consideration of uncertainty surrounding the data used in the estimate. This research seeks an alternative to this by coupling a multi-objective decision analysis approach with Monte Carlo simulation to adequately account for uncertainty in strategic basing decisions. In the context of this research, strategic basing decisions aspire to pick the highest valued, lowest cost installations to establish organizations. The inclusion of uncertainty in both input data to calculate an overall value score and cost parameters for each installation allows decision makers to better understand the entire decision space. Additionally, the incorporation of uncertainty permits analysts to test for statistical differences between installations and recommend trade-offs to decision makers.