Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Engineering Management


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

John J. Elshaw, PhD.


The Air Force is in a period of downsizing, both aircraft and personnel. In recent years, the service has cut hundreds of aircraft from its fleet and decreased military end-strength, but has not substantially reduced its infrastructure. Consequently, the cost to operate and maintain Air Force Bases is not decreasing. Mitigation methods are needed to manage the costly burden of excess infrastructure. A new Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) round will help the Air Force reduce unnecessary infrastructure and alleviate precious resources necessary for weapon modernization and improved readiness. Cost savings through BRAC can help the Air Force achieve reduced spending and realign itself to post-war budget reductions and a constrained fiscal environment. This research analyzed new severe weather and energy factors at 62 major Air Force Bases in the United States. Adding these new factors should better account for other potential costs and savings associated with BRAC. To estimate these costs, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to forecast annual costs and account for uncertainty with tornado and hurricane risks, along with annual electricity and natural gas costs. Annual cost estimates of these four factors range from approximately $1-million to $100-million dollars. Each base is ranked in a 1-to-n list, according to the total annual cost of the four factors, from highest to lowest. The base with highest annual cost is the best candidate, according to the new proposed criteria, to be eligible for a future BRAC round. If a base is selected for closure, forecasted costs are avoided and ultimately become savings that help offset other expenses in a BRAC scenario.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number


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Engineering Commons