Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Michael P. Kretser, PhD.


The Department of Defense (DoD) tracks and records all cargo shipments as they move from one location to the next. Inevitably, there are mistakes that are made when dealing with these shipments. Currently the Air Force does not use any forecasting techniques to predict these shipping discrepancies, thus it has no way to prepare for them other than employing remedial measures after errors occur. The purpose of this research is to study the current Air Force shipping processes, specifically shipping discrepancies, and determine if any trends emerge. By examining historical shipment discrepancy data, a trend analysis was accomplished and from this data a relatively accurate forecast was developed. In the final analysis, it was concluded that three models most accurately forecasted the behavior of the discrepancy codes studied. These three models can be utilized in determining the root causes of these discrepancy trends. If employed, focused training events should reduce costs to the Air Force through cost avoidance through by circumventing lost time and resources normally expended correcting shipping errors.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number