Rey A. Heron

Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis


Department of Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD.


Predicting Estimates at Complete (EAC) for Department of Defense (DoD) space programs has proven to be a daunting task. Although the use of Earned Value Management (EVM) formulations have been around for several decades, research has validated the need to conduct specific investigations based on commodity type and contract completion percentage. A recent Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) study improved space program EAC accuracy using a Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) model. This research was conducted based exclusively on program level Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) data. The DoD requires contractors to report lower level WBS data, and current guidance supports the notion that lower level data are useful for program analysis. This study assesses the BCWP model using lower level WBS data. In addition, the second phase of this research investigates whether or not knowledge concerning lower level WBS activities can improve the analytical ability to predict EAC cost growth. The results indicate that lower level WBS data does not improve space program EAC accuracy in combination with the BCWP model. This research also finds that space programs contain a great deal of variability at lower level WBS activities making it difficult to draw comparisons across contracts.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number