Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis


Department of Systems Engineering and Management

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD.


Government contractors report earned value (EV) information to government agencies in monthly Contract Performance Reports (CPR). Though major differences may exist in the data between subsequent CPRs, we know of no government effort to detect these occurrences. The identification of major changes may locate and isolate problems and thus prevent million and billion dollar cost and schedule overruns. In this study, we develop an approach to identify changes in the Cost Performance Index (CPI) and the Schedule Performance Index (SPI) that may indicate problems with contract performance. We find the detection algorithm indentifies changes in the CPI and the SPI that correspond to large future changes in the Estimate at Complete (EAC). The ability to detect unusual changes provides decision-makers with warnings for potential problems for acquisition contracts.

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DTIC Accession Number