Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Raymond Hill, PhD.


Each year the Air Force spends billions of dollars on Test and Evaluation to ensure acquisition programs roll out the best possible products. In 1997, the National Research Council assembled to evaluate the overall procedure used in procuring various platforms with system planning, research, development and engineering (SPRDE) and program management (PM) processes. In their final report, they claimed that the full advantages of statistical practices, simulation, model-test-models, and incorporation of prior test information into current test practices have not been fully utilized. To examine one of the report's recommendations, this thesis defines and explores a methodology using simulation to augment or replace test data in lieu of operational testing. Specifically, a validated simulation model employs non-critical factor data from preliminary small sample operational testing. The simulation then generates posterior distribution data to replace the corresponding data in the final test matrix. If useful, data generated by a validated simulation model can be used in lieu of actual operational test data for selected non-critical factors. This provides T&E squadrons a means to decrease the level of live operational testing on non-critical factors. Therefore, T&E can be more efficient as less runs are needed to evaluate system factors of interest. This thesis defines methods to use test data to validate simulation results, us simulation data as evidence for subsequent operational testing, and use simulation to potentially replace test data.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number