Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Raymond R. Hill, PhD.


Aircraft survivability is a broad subject that encompasses many fields and subjects. An important part of aircraft survivability is fire prevention. Flashes created by ballistic impacts are a very real threat to aircraft because they can start fires or cause explosions. In an effort to better protect against these flashes, this study seeks to further the understanding and characterization of them. Recent research on this subject has been greatly helped by the use of high-speed video footage of flash events. This footage has led to new algorithms and methodologies for how to characterize a flash. A preliminary predictive model of a flash event has already been made, but needs to be refined before implementation. This research effort is dedicated to further refining and developing this predictive model by finding a new time series model that more aptly describes the shape of the analyzed data. To this end, new data have been created and analyzed, and a new predictive flash model has been created. This model has been validated and proven to be adequate. Even though there is some amount of work that can still be done to enhance it, it is recommended that this model be implemented into the current flash prediction tools.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number