Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Darryl Ahner, PhD.


Substandard system reliability is one of the leading causes of increased Operations and Maintenance (O&M) costs as noted in several recent National Research Council reports. Between 2006 and 2011, Director Operational Test & Evaluation noted 26 of 52 Department of Defense acquisition programs failed to meet reliability thresholds, but were approved, leading to degraded operational performance, increased O&M costs, and increased safety risks for personnel involved. As a system is developed from prototype to final product, structural changes and design flaws are corrected, leading to an increase in system reliability, called reliability growth. Due to the nature of the system changes, standard forecasting methods cannot be applied, and a class of reliability growth models is used to estimate the change in reliability over multiple stages. Despite the significant impact of reliability growth projection, little research has been accomplished on comparing the robustness of various reliability growth models.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number