Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Raymond R. Hill, PhD.


The Air Force is extremely concerned with the safety of its people, especially those who are flying aircraft. Aircrew members flying combat missions are concerned with the chance that a fragment from an exploding threat device may penetrate into the airframe to possibly ignite a fire onboard the aircraft. One concern for vulnerability revolves around a flash that may occur when a projectile strikes and penetrates an aircraft's fuselage. When certain fired rounds strike the airframe, they break into fragments called spall. Spall and other fragmentation from an impact often gain enough thermal energy to oxidize the materials involved. This oxidation causes a flash. To help negate these incidents, analysts must be able to predict the flash that can occur when a projectile strikes an aircraft. This research directly continues AFIT work for the 46th Test Group, Survivability Analysis Flight, by examining models to predict the likelihood of penetration of a fragment fired at a target. Empirical live-fire fragment test data are used to create an empirical model of a flash event. The resulting model provides an initial back-face flash modeling capability that can be implemented in joint survivability analysis models.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number


Included in

Risk Analysis Commons